January 2026 Housing Market Trends: Inventory Growth, Sales Shift & Rate Dynamics This Week
This Week’s Housing Market Snapshot
Rising Inventory Signals Early Spring Momentum
The latest weekly data shows existing home inventory continuing to grow, climbing from about 695,628 homes to 697,868 in the week ending January 23, 2026 — up from ~635,529 at the same time last year.
Additionally, new listings remain solid (over 53,900 last week), helping to alleviate some of the supply constraints that have plagued the market for years.
Why this matters: More homes on the market give buyers greater choice and negotiating leverage, while sellers can benefit from early engagement before traditional spring competition escalates.
Sales Volume Showing Winter Thaw
After a slow 2025, recent figures reveal a notable rebound in sales activity:
Existing home sales in December 2025 climbed 5.1% month-over-month, marking the strongest pace in nearly three years.
This “winter thaw” suggests that rate relief and rising inventory may be prompting previously sidelined buyers to return — an encouraging sign for early 2026.
Mortgage Rates: Slight Rise But Still Supportive
Mortgage rates have edged marginally higher this week, with the 30-year fixed average at around 6.09% — slightly above last week but still low by historical standards.
Takeaway: While the minor uptick may cause some short-term pause among buyers, rates remain more favorable than a year ago, keeping financing accessible for many purchasers.
Buyer-Seller Dynamics Shifting
Recent market reports indicate a significant buyer-seller imbalance, with sellers outnumbering buyers by roughly 47% nationwide — a level not seen since 2013.
This dynamic reshapes negotiation power:
Buyers: Can ask for concessions, inspections, and price flexibility
Sellers: Must prioritize pricing strategies and staging to attract qualified offers
Balanced markets typically emerge when supply and demand settle near equilibrium — a pattern we’re beginning to see as inventory grows and price growth slows.
Local Spotlight: California Housing Trends
Statewide reports highlight California’s unique market picture:
The California Association of REALTORS® forecasts modest gains in 2026, with existing home sales expected to rise ~2% and median price near $905,000.
Inventory constraints and affordability challenges continue to influence buyer interest and market pace in major metros.
In enclaves like Montecito and ultra-luxury segments, some markets saw extraordinary activity (e.g., 400% surge in sales compared year-over-year in early January), illustrating local variability even within broader trends.
What This Week Means for You
For Buyers
✔ More listings = increased options
✔ Sales momentum suggests more competition but greater movement
✔ Interest rates below recent peaks support purchase planning
Buyer Tip: Stay pre-approved and ready to act quickly as inventory changes weekly.
For Sellers
✔ Supply rising so accurate pricing is critical
✔ Slightly slower price growth means strategic marketing matters
✔ Buyer surplus in some regions tilts leverage toward negotiations
Seller Tip: Refresh your listing presentation (professional photos, update price strategy) to stand out in a growing inventory environment.
Looking Ahead
Expect the market to continue its transition toward balance as spring approaches:
Inventory growth may reduce extreme price bids
Sales activity is likely to continue seasonal improvement
Rate movements will be a key factor influencing timing for both buyers and sellers